Again, as I always say when it comes to posts like this, I open with some statements of fact. I do not hold DAL stock (nor any airline stock) in my trading or IRA accounts or my wife’s for that matter. I do not intend to buy any DAL stock now, or in the near future. I am just not that brave.
That said DAL, that is Delta’s stock, is in an interesting “channel” move right now and mostly downward as you can see. What is driving it? I would love to claim it is all because folks are wising up to the crushing changes to SkyMiles 2015 but (and I can see MJ on Travel giggling at me) we know that is not the main stock price mover. What are they?
According to seekingalpha.com the biggest impacts are fear of the uncertain such as capacity growth, and, shocker, fuel prices. If you have not noticed, oil has been hovering around $60 a barrel. A move up to $70 or more will have an impact on all the airlines. A move down will take pressure off. We will see what happens next in that important area.
Now what does interest me, as it really is all about you and me this year, is competition world wide (a good thing for us as flyers btw) and more capacity means more empty seats. That also is a good thing for upgrades etc and just having an empty middle seat every now and then when stuck in coach would be nice. Oh and lower prices for airline tickets is always nice – right?
The other tiny little issue is then SkyMiles. The way Delta has cut & cut & cut the program there is no real saving grace to lure flyers to pick Delta over another airline like AA or Alaska that is paying more loyalty points this year for those who spend a little and a lot more with those who spend a bunch. Plus, unlike Delta, they are not punishing on the redemption side at the same time. Perhaps Delta should have thought through some of these changes if they ever need to use SkyMiles as a tool in the future to fill those empty seats! 😉
Anyway, as I say, I am no stock expert, but I can see trends and trend lines. I can see resistance for DAL in the 40 range and support in the 30-35 range. Again, not suggesting buying the stock but just interesting to look at and just what Delta will do to stop this slow decline in shareholder value.
What do you think? Where are we going from here? Do you think the changes to SkyMiles are having an impact now or will in the future? – René
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